Politics of Bihar is feeling storm these days. Here and there an incident come forward which diverts the Political Landscape. Why? First, lets have some understanding of Caste Politics and who need whom in Bihar. In Bihar, Journalists and The Present government will try to convince you that Caste is not the issue this time. Well it's true to some extent but not entirely, It's still in play and the Nitish Kumar and his Party also understands it. For all of his development talks( Yeah, I know Roads have improved under formerly NDA GOVT and most people praised the government and 1st time we had some GOVERNANCE) or more accurately a repetitive attempt to steal the credit of development in entirety and to trick people into buying his attempt to discredit BJP, Well People are not buying his 'GUHAARS'.
All the pre-poll surveys showing BJP leading the way and it's the only party which will get votes of Youngsters of all community except one. Even If Nitish try to convince his Cadres that these polls are all fakes, truth will not change and the truth is he is not going to win more than 7 seats. I am predicting without any survey of mine, Pollsters send their team. I have my friends spread all over the state and they feel the 'wave' on daily basis in the evening talks. All the polls are either absolutely on the mark or little bit underestimating the 'Wave'. These are the same polls which accurately predicted the landslide win of NDA in 2010, Nitish didn't complained at that time. These are the same polls which Predicted the NDA rout of UPA in 2009 LS Polls, Nitish didn't complained. Now he is crying foul when Polls are predicting his disappearance from Bihar.
Nitish Kumar's all Political bet is on Muslim votes and the Mahadalit votes. Laloo Yadav's political career survived on the 'MY samikaran' or Muslim-Yadav votes. The 'samikaran' destroyed, Laloo Yadav gone extinct. Muslims have never voted for JDU in majority in any election this time it is no different, their votes are going to spread and the majority will vote for the upcoming 'the Congress-RJD alliance 235'. So, this Nitish's bet is going to 'daga' him. Next up are Mahadalits? These are the most backward people of Bihar, they formerly called 'dalits'. Dalits divided by Nitish in two groups on the basis of most backward and the backward class. Most backwards became Mahadalits and the backwards remained dalits, the truth was they were all backward class of our society except one 'Mushars' who are the most backward people on this whole Universe. Why Nitish divided these people, How can you divide people when all are evenly poor(the difference In my view existed of 0.00001% Maybe that's why they disintegrated dalits). Well that was the political masterstroke of All time by Nitish. All the Dalits were made Mahadalits except the community of Paswan(The biradiri group of Ram Vilas Paswan). before the divide, all Dalit groups were the regular voters of Ram Vilas Paswan. Now after the divide, Mahadalits got the new survivor in Nitish Kumar while Dalits(Paswan) sticked to Ram Vilas Paswan. The Newly formed Mahadalits were new voters for Nitish Kumar's NDA. After the dissolution of NDA in Bihar. Nitish Kumar still betting on this group for votes. Laloo also has a eye on this group. Ram Vilas Paswan even if not their survivor anymore still very respected and potent force among these groups, he has his votes intact in dalit votes. BJP may get some votes in the name of Narendra Modi but after forming coalition with Ram Vilas Paswan they can get majority of votes of Mahadalits and Dalits combined. Overall, Both of these groups are going to have their votes split up in JDU, LJP and BJP ...very less so for Laloo-CONGRESS. These groups alone can not win seats for Nitish.
What about other castes, groups. In Upper castes votes, things are very bright for BJP and not so much for other Parties especially JDU. These groups are in block going to vote for BJP for only one reason. i.e Narendra Modi. Bhumihars, Rajputs, Brahmins and Kayastha traditionally or only represent this group of votes. Don't misunderstood it as they are United because they aren't. They are going to vote for Narendra Modi. You can talk to the youth of these communities they are seriously excited and hopeful of NaMo. How Nitish Kumar is going to win seats and his last hope is....
OBC(OTHER BACKWARD CLASS) these group is consisted of Yadavs, Khurmis, Bania, Koeri and .......... Yadavs or Ahirs are the traditional and still secure voters of Laloo Yadav but unfortunately for him, Not the case this time. This time they will vote for the OBC leader who is going to lead country... not Laloo Yadav But Narendra Modi. Some Yadavs will remain with Laloo but lots of new Yadav votes coming up for BJP. Khurmi voters the caste group of Nitish Kumar will still remain with JDU but that is not going to make much difference as the population of this caste group is very low. Other backward groups like Bania, Koeri, Vishwakarma and others are going to vote BJP in majorities, but then 100% votes of any community is impossible so some will vote for RJD-CONGRESS and JDU.
Not much chance for Nitish left. And his coalition with Left Parties was never going to help him markedly.
This Was no attempt of mine to divide voters, It was just an attempt to understand voters, I just hope they will vote for development instead of caste based votes and they will vote for development mostly as the last few elections proved. I hope they will vote for the ouster of incompetent government. So, BJP has formed an alliance with Upendra Kumar 'KUSHWAHA'.....MASTERSTROKE NUMBER 1
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